Time for Action Against Assad

Not sure if you guys have been following the events in Syria the past week, but I have been shocked at the footage showing undeniably what was a chemical weapons attack against civilians (including scores of innocent women and children). See, e.g.:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=id9obVQMO5A

I’ve grown somewhat isolationist in my foreign policy views over the years (in particular since the Middle East adventurism of the U.S. during the previous decade). But I think at some point non-intervention is in itself a dangerous policy. The Syrian use of chemical weapons against thousands of its own innocent civilians crosses that point for me, as it appears to have done for Obama’s now infamous “red line.” I don’t think the (relatively) free Western world can idly sit back and watch this genocide proceed any further. Time to dump this tyrannical Assad asshat into the ash heap of history.

I think the WSJ editorial board member Bret Stephens says it best in his piece today:

[quote]Should President Obama decide to order a military strike against Syria, his main order of business must be to kill Bashar Assad. Also, Bashar’s brother and principal henchman, Maher. Also, everyone else in the Assad family with a claim on political power. Also, all of the political symbols of the Assad family’s power, including all of their official or unofficial residences. The use of chemical weapons against one’s own citizens plumbs depths of barbarity matched in recent history only by Saddam Hussein. A civilized world cannot tolerate it. It must demonstrate that the penalty for it will be acutely personal and inescapably fatal.

Maybe this strikes some readers as bloody-minded. But I don’t see how a president who ran for his second term boasting about how he “got” Osama bin Laden—one bullet to the head and another to the heart—has any grounds to quarrel with the concept.

As it is, a strike directed straight at the Syrian dictator and his family is the only military option that will not run afoul of the only red line Mr. Obama is adamant about: not getting drawn into a protracted Syrian conflict. And it is the one option that has a chance to pay strategic dividends from what will inevitably be a symbolic action.

Let’s examine some of the alternatives.

One option is to target the Syrian army’s stores of chemical weapons, estimated at over 1,000 tons. Last week the Times of Israel reported that “the embattled [Assad] regime has concentrated its vast stocks of chemical weapons in just two or three locations . . . under the control of Syrian Air Force Intelligence.” If that’s right, there’s a chance some large portion of Assad’s stockpile could be wiped out of existence using “agent-defeat” bombs that first shred chemical storage containers in a rain of metal darts, and then incinerate the chemicals with white phosphorus, preventing them from going airborne.

Still, it’s unlikely that airstrikes could destroy all of the regime’s chemical stores, which are probably now being moved in anticipation of a strike, and which could always be replenished by Bashar’s friends in North Korea and Iran. More to the point, a strike on chemical weapons stocks, while salutary in its own right, does little to hurt the men who ordered their use. Nor does it seriously damage the regime’s ability to continue waging war against its own people, if only by conventional means.

Another option would be a strike on the headquarters, air bases and arms depots of the regime’s elite Republican Guard, and particularly Maher Assad’s Fourth Armored Division, which reportedly carried out last week’s attack. But here the problem of asset dispersion becomes that much greater, as fewer tanks, helicopters or jets can be destroyed by a single cruise missile (unit cost: $1.5 million).

Nor is it clear, morally speaking, why the grunts doing the Assad family’s bidding should be first in the line of American fire. In the spring of 2005 I was briefly detained by a Republican Guard unit when I stumbled into their encampment on the Lebanese border. The soldiers looked poor, dirty and thin. I felt sorry for them then. I still do.

Then there is the “Desert Fox” option—Bill Clinton’s scattershot, three-day bombing campaign of Iraq in December 1998, on the eve of his impeachment. The operation hit 97 targets in an effort to “degrade” Iraq’s WMD stockpiles and make a political statement. But it did nothing to damage Saddam’s regime and even increased international sympathy for him. Reprising that feckless exercise in “doing something” is the worst thing the U.S. could do in Syria. Sadly, it’s probably what we’ll wind up doing.

And so to the Kill Assad option. On Monday John Kerry spoke with remarkable passion about the “moral obscenity” of using chemical weapons, and about the need to enforce “accountability for those who would use the world’s most heinous weapons against the world’s most vulnerable people.” Amen, Mr. Secretary, especially considering that you used to be Bashar’s best friend in Washington.

But now those words must be made to mean something, lest they become a piece of that other moral obscenity: the West’s hitherto bland indifference to Syria’s suffering. Condemnation can no longer suffice. It recalls the international reaction to Mussolini’s invasion of Abyssinia, captured by the magazine Punch:

“We don’t want you to fight/but by jingo if you do/We will probably issue a joint memorandum/Suggesting a mild disapproval of you.” Mussolini went on to conquer the country—using chemical weapons.

The world can ill-afford a reprise of the 1930s, when the barbarians were given free rein by a West that had lost its will to enforce global order. Yes, a Tomahawk aimed at Assad could miss, just as the missiles aimed at Saddam did. But there’s also a chance it could hit and hasten the end of the civil war. And there’s both a moral and deterrent value in putting Bashar and Maher on the same list that once contained the names of bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki.

There will be other occasions to consider the narrow question of Syria’s future. What’s at stake now is the future of civilization, and whether the word still has any meaning.
[/quote]
Link to Stephens’ column: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323407104579036740023927518.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

If we kill Assad, radical Islamists will just come into power.

You need to have a successor lined up for this to be effective. The Taliban is foaming at the mouth for us to take him out.

See: Arab spring backfire, Egypt, etc.

Yeah it’s a fucking cesspool. It’s like all these places. You take out the slightly crazy psychos running the joint and open it up and then far more extreme psychos take over.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt… Take your pick.

And then you have the Russians…

The line from the old Who song ‘won’t get fooled again’ is

Meet the new boss,
Same as the old boss

… and then I get on my knees and pray…

There are no good options here. That is clear enough. However, the US does have interests in preventing the spread and/or use of weapons of mass destruction. One of the arguments for not taking action against Assad (despite his slaughtering of tens of thousands of his own people) was that he at least had control over Syria’s stockpile of WMDs and would prevent them from getting into the hands of the rebels, many of whom are anti-Western jihadists.

Well that rationale has obviously become moot, as WMDs are not just being spread around - they are actually being used by the supposed source of stability: Assad himself. That definitely implicates the US (and other Western) interests. We have the capability both to launch an attack on Assad himself and destroy Syria’s stockpiles of WMDs.

It’s also not clear that Assad’s eventual replacement would be worse than the status quo. Assad is one of only two dictators to have used WMDs since WWII (Saddam Hussein being the other). A strong show of force against him could effectively act as a deterrent to any successor who would be inclined to gas his own people. It’s also worth noting that Assad is part of the Alawite minority in Syria - they make up just about 10% of the population.

So I’m not saying that the US should launch some kind of attack a la Iraq 2003. But I think the indiscriminate use of WMDs requires a show of force by the US and its allies - the civilized world simply cannot tolerate it.

Easy. Assassinate him. Assassinate successors who show the same tendencies. Assassinate all those fucks who commit genocide, terrorism, etc… The technology is there

US will not go into Syria simply because there is not enough incentive. Syria produces 1/10th the amount of oil that Iraq does, which is still half of what the us produces daily.

actually that’s the end of the song lol

It goes beyond just Syria as I mentioned above. The Russians are still protecting Assad’s regime and the Chinese, although having taken a back seat, aren’t too keen on a Western intervention either. The US-Russia relationship is already fairly low, this would just add fuel to the fire. Not saying it would cause an all out war of course but it would escalate the already bad rapport they currently have.

And the USA are relying on China and Russia (both against Syrian intervention) in controlling North Korea. It’s always more complicated.

Yes, but not for the reasons we all think. They’re a bargaining chip. These upstarts all want the big weapons so that people won’t fuck with them.

Look at Pakistan…it was a splinter of India fighting for it’s own regoin in order to protect their muslim interests. When they achieved independance, they were a nobody who got kicked around by the entire region, most notably India.

Then they got the nukes.

Once that happened, you can’t just tell these guys to fuck off…you have to listen to them. It is MAD theory. Mutually Assured Destruction. They have a nuke. If we attack, they have the ability to wipe our entire country out. Of course, we will then wipe them out, but nobody wins. We’re both destroyed. MAD theory.

Same with Iran. Same with Korea. They’re not trying to achieve long range nuclear weapon capabilities so they can attack America. They just want to be able to say ‘NO…FUCK YOU. WE’RE PART OF THE DISCUSSIONS’

Did anyone really think China would be sitting at the big-boys table if they didn’t have their military and nuke capability? They’ve evolved tremendously but let’s not forget…this place is a human rights nightmare. But they’ve got nukes, so we look the other way and do business with them.

It’s very interesting.

a crazy murderous dictator who instills fear in his people can keep shit tied down to a certain extent. When you remove that guy, you’re not worried about the next guy…you’re worried about what happens to the country in chaos when there are no rules.

There have been more people killed in bombings in Iraq since Hussein left power than were killed in September the 11th. Times 50.

I agree that nukes (or other WMDs) are a bargaining chip and a way for a country to rise in stature. There’s no doubt about that. But I don’t see how that cuts against using force in Syria. If anything, removing the Assad regime may actually help in opposing Iran’s efforts to go nuclear. Iran knows how much is at stake in Syria, and they are doing everything they can to prop up the Assad govt.

Also, MAD is a theory of deterrence that worked in the Cold War but is not necessarily applicable to Al Qaieda and other terrorist groups. Willing martyrs probably don’t put much consideration into how their targets are going to respond. The 9/11 hijackers certainly weren’t worried that the US would start a war on terrorism after they attacked NYC and D.C. What mattered to them was inflicting the maximum amount of damage possible - they would have used a nuke if they had the opportunity.

Remember that Iran is the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. One of their stated goals is the destruction of Israel, our most important ally in the region. Does anyone have any doubt that Iran would funnel WMDs to Hezbollah or some other terrorist group to attack Israel, the US, or other Western targets?

As I’ve stated, Syria presents a menu of horrible options. While choosing to use force in Syria certainly could have pretty bad consequences, what is the cost of doing nothing? The same arguments for non-intervention were used in the 1930s until all hell broke loose with Hitler. I’m not saying it’s the same thing, but it presents analogous circumstances.

Agreed. And the Middle East is so fucked up that things can spiral out of control even when that murderous dictator is removed, the next guy is democratically elected, and there is still a system of laws. See, e.g., Egypt 2011-2013.

It is probably more complicated than we can even imagine - lots of moving pieces and complex relationships here. Not to mention the high degree of secrecy of diplomatic relations. There’s only so much the public will ever know. We may end up using force in Syria, but for reasons that are wholly different than we are led to believe. The truth may not be revealed for some 50 years or so when documents and cables are declassified.

The whole Russia and Iran angle is really interesting here. In a sense, the Syrian war is a proxy for the conflicts between the US on one hand, and Russia and Iran on the other. It’s funny that when Obama came into office he promised a “reset” with Russia and to engage in direct nuclear talks with Iran. The result? The US’s relationship with Russia is probably at its lowest since the Cold War, and Iran is marching full-speed ahead to acquire nuclear weapons. Obama’s foreign policy (if one can even call it that) has been a resounding disaster.

[quote=“clochner,post:14,topic:4581”]
Good thing for his domestic policy… err maybe not… How about fiscal policy… err maybe not… How about his health care reform… err maybe not… LOL! Yet he gets a second term… Sigh…

[quote=“primetime,post:15,topic:4581”]

Ya shame on Ohio for being so damn important in presidential elections! ;D

I couldn’t agree with you more, Prime. “Train wreck” has been used to describe Obamacare (by its own architect in the Senate lol), but that’s just how I would characterize everything about this administration. It is so full of fail on every level - and we still have more than three years left . . .

I don’t want to go into an Obama pro and con debate but if he let Russia walk all over him, then he’d be criticized for being weak. Russia is acting like a rebellious teenager and he’s having to put his foot down and express discontent without ruffling too many feathers due to global economic ties and reliance on Russia for some foreign policy. From that stand-point, he’s between a rock and a hard place (as would any American president would be in that same situation). Look at Romney and his constant slip ups. He managed to fuck up and piss off the Brits on something as inconsequential and stupid as the Olympics and he had promised to declare China as a currency manipulator on his first day on the job lol. I’m not sure he’d be doing a better foreign policy job were he in office. People who aren’t fans of Obama will find fault with anything he does. It’s politics. I accept it. I have plenty of criticism of Obama myself but I seriously doubt Romney would have done a better job. Romney was a dangerous cowboy lacking subtlety from a foreign policy stand-point, probably making things way worse than they are now.

Obama can’t tie his shoes without first asking Valerie Jarrett or running a focus group.

Yet many of his opponents are calling him a dictator and Fox news compares him to Hitler. See my point? Haters are going to be haters. Doesn’t matter if it’s politics or cars. They’ll say opposing critics whenever it suits them. He’s not doing enough, he’s doing too much, bla bla bla.

He’s doing his job with a Republican led Congress who’s been quoted as saying that their primary goal is to get Obama out of office, even if that means fucking over the nation’s citizens. Where’s the criticism there? Oh wait, biased views. That’s why (and that’s just the snowflake on the tip of the iceberg).

Obama has his faults but come on, if you’re going to criticize someone, try and be logical and consistent on your critique and take into account context/the full picture.

And finally, when Bush Jr. was fucking up left right and centre, implementing draconian laws, infringing on people’s liberties, etc. his fans were going on about how anti-American it was to criticize the President. And then once a Democrat became President, it’s no holds barred, go ahead and criticize the President all you want, it would be anti-American not to.

Such hypocrisy.

Obama’s foreign policy is a joke, has been a joke, and will always be a joke. I would even venture to say its more dysfunctional than his ObamaCare plan. Reference the following:

Pre-Mature 100% pull out of IRQ
Pre-determined 100% pull out of AFG
the “intervention” of US-led influences during the Arab Spring
the 9/11 embassy attacks in Libya and the lack of action
Use of drone strikes of “verified” sources

Lastly, the appointment of that joke of a flip-flopping politican, John Kerry as Head of State.

I’ve done my time in the service and will do it again if I have to but this current foreign policy philosophy of “nation building” needs to stop or we’re going to spread ourselves thin and eventually, we will fall. There was an article that was written arguing that America will not go the ways of the Romans, I think it might have been the WSJ. While I agree, I think it will go the way of Russia, a weakened 1st world/2nd world power and Obamas policy is driving it that way.

/rant

TL, DR:

US-led intervention into Syria is not a good idea, let the UN lead it with US/US Ally support