It just doesn't work: Tesla

Not to mention that west has never, not once, directly responded to when I pointed him to our 1/4 mile database. It’s why I’ve said he’s intentionally being dense/obtuse.

The nicest thing I can say about the drag strip is, I like it better than autocross. I’ll give it another go and try to have a beginners mind. When I post my times and they don’t set records in the database, I’ll get trolled. I can say something like “a new 991 ran high 12’s that day” and that won’t matter. My car will be broken, my driving will “suck” even when my roll is under 2 seconds, and it will all be my fault for not clearing the world record and in fact being slower than a lot of stock S4’s on pump. In theory I should have one of the fastest S4’s at 3590 pounds on Revo 1+. Set a reasonable goal for me in terms of trap and ET. 12.4 at 112?

How about that Porsche Mission E with the dual motor 918 electric drive? Would be nice if they standardized on Tesla’s charging and kicked in a franchise fee (or sponsored stations) for the supercharger network.

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--Mx3Ty6bs--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/1430586378091423777.jpg

I think a lot of the negitive feed back is that the REVO tune isnt well respected and lots of guys on here hate to see people get tunes from companys that just dont really support the platform or are not honest. Revo tunes dont have great results and I know some people dont like APR or GIAC but for the performance both of those are the top tunes and to keep the market to keep people honest guys point out the bad times with what is seen as a bad tune.

or thats my .02

http://bgr.com/2015/09/15/tesla-vs-porsche-mercedes-analysis/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social

I’ll just leave this here.

It’s the distribution model, the supercharger network, the service centers you don’t have to drive to, excellence in software and over the air “recalls”, and being the world’s lowest cost and highest volume battery supplier. Also supporting them is a low cost in house ERP system, equity compensation for most employees, and straight time overtime for some laborers (no healthcare and retirement liability). Thus far they don’t have a finance company and the bankruptcies associated with those for making loans at 0% for 6 years to people with 590 FICO scores.

As much as I’m torn regarding Tesla, that article focuses on the completely wrong concerns/issues Tesla is and will be facing in the next 5 years.

Sports cars are useless.

Make some thing useful

“Volkswagen Sees Billions Wiped Off Market As Stock Tumbles 20 Percent Amid Dieselgate”

It’s not hard to see how Tesla will eclipse VW in market cap, then in sales. They’re a serial polluter with a house of cards business model. The crap flows from the factories that only work 8 months a year, to the dealer franchises, to the finance companies, to the customer who is stuck with a rube goldberg machine of a car that needs constant service and is basically worth only the “part out / junkyard” cost after 8 years.

lol west “eclipse VW in sales” “house of cards business model” “rube goldberg machine of a car”…way to spin something completely unrelated along your own ridiculous agenda.

I have no agenda. I like to know what’s going to happen in the future so I’m not surprised by it.

When Tesla starts selling $35,000 cars that last for 25-30 years with no annual maintenance cost and negligible fuel cost it will change the world. These cars don’t even need brake jobs because the regenerative motor is doing that work (unless it’s a panic stop).

Tinkering with gasoline cars will truly become a luxury for the rich. Most people get no benefit for the hassle of cars with powerplants on board.

I know, right?

"Eclipse VW in Sales?

Do you mean worldwide? You really think Tesla will surpass VW Group and all of its subsidiaries? If so, you are more insane and down-right oblivious than I ever thought.

he just likes the attention. it makes him feel special the way his mom always told him he was.

VW builds 6 million cars a year right now. The gigafactory will allow Tesla to build 1 million cars a year. These cars will come directly at the expense of VW group - every Tesla sold will be a VW not sold. Stock markets reward growth. Stock markets penalize YoY declines.

The fact is Tesla will make more profit on 1 million cars than VW does on 6 million. Lower labor cost, direct to consumer distribution, no dealer chargebacks for maintenance/claims, etc. Electric cars are a lower cost business that provides substitute transportation for gasoline cars.

In case you can’t do math, the $18 billion fine VW has to pay for the diesel scam is $18,000 per car sold in the US ($3000 per car sold worldwide). So they aren’t making a profit this year!

Diesel and hybrids are VW’s solution to the efficiency problem. We can now expect the EPA is going to come down hard on the turbo motors which actually aren’t any more efficient. It would not surprise me if the ECU acts one way to get good gas mileage on the EPA test, and a different way when we drive them to work. This is only the start of a massive inquiry and the stock market knows it

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPaoVhUUcAAuPSX.jpg:large

West, you are fucking insane…

west - just put your money where your fucking mouth is and invest your life savings into TSLA. Might as well seek to capitalize on your insanity. If you’re not invested in Tesla, well then we will all know you’re just trolling here.

Telsa’s market cap is $33 billion and VW’s market cap is $63 billion. VW sold 370k cars in the US last year, a decline of 10%. Tesla’s growth is 50% at a run rate of 46k cars a year which will double with the Model X to over 100k units.

https://media.giphy.com/media/mBFJme8XwXrUY/giphy.gif

again…does anyone care about the fickle guesses of a fanboy, or the exhuberant share price of a company that is burning cash at a prodigious rate?

nope

Further, who cares if they’re selling cars? Does it change any of these things?

  1. they’re ugly
  2. they’re expensive as all fuck
  3. they’re government subsidized with tax breaks
  4. they’re government subsidized again with grants for buyers
  5. they’re inconvenient if you like to drive anywhere out of town
  6. they’re not that great quality wise
  7. they’re not that fast once you’re moving relative to the competition
  8. they’re shit for the environment
  9. they’re not as cheap to fuel as people have convinced themselves
  10. they’re expensive as all fuck again

None of these things have changed, and frankly #s 2, 3, 4 are the most important as it pertains to this thread.

Just wait till there’s a correction in the tech market with high burn rate companies who are mortgaging their future by selling equity at peak valuations. The general consensus is that these things end only one way…badly.

For further perspective, your numbers are way off. As we all know though, growing revenue and sales when you’re losing money on every unit sold means fuck all.

Further, when you look deeper, the stock market (their source of capital and sustainability) is pricing Tesla shares TODAY based on sales of about 1.5 million vehicles per year and the profitability of established brands like Audi and BMW (neither of which beit from the tax breaks Tesla and their customers do). Incidentally, BMW and Audi each sell about 1.5 million vehicles per year as well.

So how long will it take Tesla to get to 1.5 million units and Audi’s profitability levels?

The most optimistic analysts estimate they will be doing extremely well if they’re at 500,000 units in 2020. 1.5 million would be another decade on after that. 2030.

So for perspective, if you buy a share of Tesla today, you need a number of things to happen

  1. 15 years of sustained growth levels
  2. matching the worlds top luxury brand sales units in 15 years
  3. matching the world’s top luxury brand profit margins in 15 years

And you’re paying for all of that…today. In other words, if you buy Tesla shares today, you’re basically looking at either dead money for 15 years, if all goes well…or you’re fucked if any of those things don’t happen.

One of the things that can’t happen is that BMW, MB, Audi, Lexus etc. can’t sell any luxury electric cars…because if they do, that destroys Tesla’s growth. Anyone here think these guys are going to sit around and let Tesla have the electric market, all subsidized by the moronic US govt? I don’t think so. You will see an Electric Audi SUV in 2 years that will launch and eat the lunch of the Model X. Why? Because it will cost 20% less, it will be better, it will look better, it will have an established network of services, and it will be from a company that won’t go bankrupt in 4 years, leaving owners stranded the way the Fisker people are. Not to mention BMW and Mercedes and Lexus.

It’s a pipe dream the Tesla share price. Whenever people end this bull market run, and specifically the run tech is on, and wake up to realise buying real companies making real money for shareholders outstrips dreams, the party will come to an abrupt end.

None of this changes points 1-10 in my previous post.

I was actually shocked at TSLA’s price. Looks way over-inflated just from a cursory glance without factoring in the fundamentals. Curious if anyone knows what the average car company’s P/E ratio is.

it’s all growth dependant, however TSLA doesn’t have a P/E ratio since they have no E

Bob Lutz just suggested that the only merit to TSLA as a business, financially, over the next 15 years will be their revenue source from environmental credits. They will be able to sell credits to petrol powered car makers for quite a lot of money

Of course that means they’ll need to sell tons of cars, and that means they’re going to lose tons of money as well since their business model doesn’t see them anywhere near profitable for the next 5 years, and that’s if, and only if, they launch the model 3 on time.

The model 3 is the cheap mass market car. In order to do that, they must

  1. cut the cost of their batteries by 30%
  2. increase the range of those same batteries by 50%
  3. cut the weight of those batteries by 30%
  4. be able to do all of this by 2015, with no other delays (every product they’ve ever launched was a minimum of 3 years delayed)
  5. be able to do this with no outside interference from any other manufacturer taking their market share

Again…this is how people priced tech stocks in 1999. We paid $100/share for pets.com hoping it would be a great internet business. Then it went bust in weeks, and everyone remembered…oh these are actual businesses? So we have to value them as actual businesses? Ahhh…

It took 15 years for the Nasdaq index to get back to its early 2000s high. The index as a whole was priced in early 2000 at levels we wouldn’t see 15 years out when you really get down to business. Even then, no sooner had the nasdaq hit those 2000 levels than it corrected 10% to the mid 4000s where it is now (we’re still not priced for year 2000 nasdaq)

Does pricing for perfection based on 15 years from now sound familiar? TSLA anyone?