Ya I know Tesla doesn’t have a P/E, but was just curious about how other car companies are currently being valued.
Another variable that will likely impact Tesla’s share price is when the U.S. Federal Reserve starts raising rates (which they MUST at some point, and should have by now). The remarkable 7-year 0% interest rate policy has driven money to riskier investments to realize a return. When that shifts, and we return to a more rational monetary policy, you may see a lot of these overvalued, govt-dependent tech companies begin to tank, Tesla probably chief among them.
I think Tesla will sink or swim based on their ability to deliver new products at the price that they claimed they would. Selling the Model X for 130k is a joke. If they can deliver that SUV at prices around the Model S (not the performance one but the normal long range version), then that should keep them going, because now you are able to target a separate demograph which in theory shouldn’t eat sales from the main Model S. The real issue I see is that their customer base is finite, once all the trendy 5 car households buy their Model S, there is no one to sell another car to. I did see somewhere that Tesla will go pretty far into other markets with their battery tech. I think something like backup home generators?
Let me put this in terms you can understand. When an iPhone was $600, it had a small market of about 4 million phones. When an iPhone was $199 they sold 100 million of them a year. The same thing will happen to Tesla. 40k sales will turn into 1 million sales. The primary reason for switching will be it saves people $200 a month on gasoline and about $1k a year in maintenance. That saves the first million customers about $3.5 billion a year.
Who the fuck would buy a Passat or an A3 1.8T or a 320i when they can have a car with penny per mile operating costs that never breaks? The residual value on a Tesla is going to be off the charts (like 60% after 8 years), and the lease rates will come down to crazy affordable levels to reflect that.
It’s funny how I saw tons of Tesla’s on road trips this weekend and all summer long. I wonder where they found a power outlet.
You’ve been driving up coastal highway 1 all afternoon and you’re almost out of range. The nav says the closest place to charge up is a vineyard down the road from this service station. You can pay $60 for gasoline or $60 for a bottle of wine. WHAT WOULD YOU DO
Perhaps in your deranged dreamworld. In reality, it’s more likely that a bunch of Tesla owners are standing around in a circle jerk waiting for a charge port…if they are “allowed” to.
An interesting quote…
"Tesla CEO Elon Musk is aware of the issue, and in a recent shareholder meeting in June, he noted that the lines at the stations are mainly due to drivers using the Superchargers often for driving around town rather than for longer road trips.
“There are a few people who are quite aggressively using it for local supercharging,” he said. “We’ll sort of send them just a reminder note that it’s cool to do this occasionally, but it’s meant to be a long-distance thing.”
Basically what he is saying is if you want to hammer on the go pedal around town, you should then go back home and wait 12 hours rather than using the supercharger network. Very convenient.
Yeah people still don’t understand that the story Tesla sells and the reality of owning one are very different things.
It have a friend who bought one a year ago. It’s not so fun anymore. Was at first. 'I’m saving $xxx… It is so fast! I’m saving the environment! This is the future! There are no moving parts to go wrong! ’
After a year of cold hard truth he says it’s like any car. It’s just different and has its limitations in range but that’s not a big deal. The length of time to charge is however. And reliability hasn’t been amazing. He has had a number of things go wrong that needed fixed. He lives right near the service place in Toronto so they come and get it and he exchanges for a loaner or takes the subway (also electric and also breaking down with alacrity ironically) .
But all in all he said it’s just a car to him now. He also said the Tesla fan boys like west are annoying as fuck constantly asking him about it when he parks it or is sitting in traffic.
see, the problem with this analogy is that you spent an extra $30,000 for the Tesla, so you either
a) you can’t afford anything anymore because you overpaid for your car, far beyond any fuel savings
b) you can buy what you want because you have loads of money/income, in which case you don’t care about deciding between a bottle of wine or a tank of gas
The funniest thing is the time value of $30,000. That is about $600/year at 2% interest rates. When interest rates normalise to say 5% for short term cash equivalents, that $30,000/year that is tied up in your fancy tesla is in effect costing you $1200/year.
When you’re ‘saving’ $30 by buying electricity instaead of petrol…but it’s costing you $25 in the time value of money, your fuel ‘savings’ just went out the fucking window.
Obviously gas money isn’t the deciding factor on a $100k purchase. But on a $35k purchase it is a consideration. IMO even the 70D is overkill. Tesla is building a Prius killer. There’s 5 million of those on the road. A motor half as powerful in a chassis 2 feet shorter and 9" narrower would be amazing transportation, particularly if the resale is higher than gasoline cars.
The cheapest 2013 Tesla on the used market is $52k. The cheapest 2013 BMW 650i on the market is $42,000. The used market has a good understanding of TCO, repair liability, etc. I think this gap is going to widen as Tesla’s product line gets mature and people realize the benefits over the doubt.
I would not personally drive a Model S or a Model X, just like I wouldn’t drive an S8 or a Q7. It’s not my style. I’d be willing to spend up to $75k MSRP ($65k after getting some of my income taxes paid returned to me the following year) for a loaded compact sedan or 4 door coupe from Tesla. I’d only pay Audi $55k for the same thing and Porsche $65k. FWIW, Porsche sold 47,000 cars in the USA last year.
Surprisingly, I rarely see people at supercharger stations. Right now they’re just stalls in the corner of parking lots. This is the most number I’ve people I’ve ever observed at one, the most popular one half way between SF and LA at Harris Ranch (awesome steakhouse when there’s only fast food for 100 miles either direction):
You ignored everything I wrote and addressed none of the facts. You instead deflect , make shit up, and throw out random comparisons I.e. Used BMW coupe prices for a car that was 72 grand new (vs Tesla 4 door that was 92 grand)
This is why nobody cares about what you write. You’re talking to your self. You’re not engaging… You’re not presenting an argument… You’re just taking with yourself. Because you listen to nobody, and frankly at this point not many people actually listen to you. Including me.
So I did a little road trip this past weekend and I went from NYC (basically NNJ suberbs) to Washington DC, Neither on the way down or back did I need to stop for Fuel and thankfully without a silly tesla waste my life charging the stupid thing. West you can marvel all you want at the supercharging stations but the fact of the matter is that tesla’s are a huge inconvenience in getting anywhere on time, or in some places in the same day. Also since only California seems to matter to you. In 2013 with a Q7 TDI I drove from LA to SF without stopping for fuel, actually not stopping at all. Then I drove it from Sonoma to San Diego (555 miles) again without refueling along the way or wasting time on vacation waiting for the stupid batteries to recharge. When stupid battery powered cars can do that, then they will be more viable, as a car.
So you think all transportation should be optimized for 2 trips a year and 7 hours of continuous driving? Do you just eat and urinate in the car to keep that going? Do you think that other people might want to lower their variable operating costs by 90%, ride in a safer passenger cell, and optimize the other 363 days a year they need the car? Because most people traveling from Sonoma to San Diego would gladly wait 20 minutes to save $70 on the trip. That’s over $200 an hour!
“Stupid batteries” makes your point pretty objective. I’m glad you’ve thought about this enough to reach out to me over the Internet about it. Perhaps you could fly to San Francisco to lecture everyone on the viability of their cars. Then you can spend $80 driving up to New York and lecture Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs on the viability of their investment. HINT: they know something you haven’t considered.
You keep posting and you make no new points, so there’s no need to address them. In every post you regurgitate:
The government requires electricity in buildings to prop up Tesla
The first car is too expensive so I don’t like it
Everyone likes Mercedes S550 better than this
Electricity costs more than gasoline
The external costs of making a Tesla have made the oceans rise by 3" and warmed the planet 1C
Tesla early adopters are douche bags and I’m a hockey player who beats up douche bags
In every post I make I present new facts and information supporting my thesis that Tesla is likely to be a successful technology company and transportation provider, very much differentiated from auto business as usual.
It is called making money in the short term and ride the gravy train for as long as possible, don’t kid yourself once something better appears tesla investment will be dropped faster than an avalanche coming down a mountain. If I was an capital investment I would invest and ride the wave right before the crash. Battery power cars have been and always will be a stop gap from gas engines to electricity. Battery powered cars aren’t bad in a urban center, but I don’t know to go anywhere far you need another car, or take days getting anywhere else. That is why it doesn’t work. It is a fad for people that want to look green and trendy. Once a full electric based car comes that doesn’t use batteries that is the future.
It’s not an all-or-nothing thing. Let’s assume the US continues to purchase 20 million new cars and trucks a year. If 2 million of them are pure electric and Tesla has 75% of that, that’s fine.
There’s something we haven’t discussed yet and that’s the gas guzzler tax. It’s conceivable in the future that cars getting as much as 35 MPG could be hit with a gas guzzler tax. We might see 6 million hybrid drive cars a year sold, for people seeking performance. German cars are going to become doubly as complicated.
For as bad as VW’s fall has been this week, the EPA is also going to have an identity crisis and reforms. Under their watch we’ve gone from V8’s to turbo V8’s and fooled ourselves into thinking this provides better mileage. The EPA is incompetent and VW took advantage. I don’t know what’s more unforgivable.
sorry…are you just making numbers up? The US has never purchased 20 million cars.
You need to seriously work on your numbers before you come in here. Making shit up or exaggerating by 30% just to make a point shows you’re unable to work with facts, and instead make shit up. Tesla is going to sell 1.5 milllion cars just like that? They struggle to sell 50,000 a year right now lol. They can’t do a fucking thing on time, and are building factories that take 5 years to come online. They’re going to grow the business 30 fold so your argument works? You’re fucking delusional.
Also where did we go from V8s to turbo V8s to save mileage? That’s very rare, and is only happening with extreme performance cars. Otherwise, engines are shrinking, displacement is shrinking and power adders are being used.
Overtime, cars get bigger, make more power, and get more displacement. Generally. Over the past 5 years, cars have done the first two, but displacement is falling. The 3 series is the same size as the 1990s 5 series. If you want a small BMW, go buy a 2 series. However don’t pretend we’re just adding turbos to pretend efficiency is better. In general, they’re adding turbos to add power, or to make smaller displacement EPA cycle fuel efficient engines.
i.e.
Audi S6 used to be a 5.2 V10. Now it is a 4.0 turbo V8.
Audi RS4 used to be 4.2 V8, now is 3.0 V6 turbo
Audi S5 used to be 4.2 V8, now is 3.0 V6 turbo
Bentley used to be 6.0 V12, now is 4.0 V8 turbo
BMW M5 used to be a 5.0 V10, now is a 4.5 V8 turbo
Pickup trucks, all BMWs, most Fords…they’re going smaller displacement and turboing, not using the same sized engine. The new Mustang V6 is actually a 4 cylinder turbo!
etc.
The only cars that went from V8 to turbo V8 that I can think of are the new C63 (6.2 downsized dramatically to a 4.0) and the Ferrari 458 facelift 488 which went from 4.5 V8 to 3.8 V8 turbo. Hardly indicative of society. These are ultra low production, high performance cars that most Americans don’t even know exist.
Sorry, the rearward looking figures are 17.5mm USA and 1.8mm Canada. It’s not a stretch to think they’ll squeeze out another 1mm cars by 2020, unless you are a true doom and gloomer who thinks the future is worse than the present.
The German automobile replacement cycle should start heating up.
